Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mainly discusses why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the first Canadian group given that Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the money has come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll most likely take a bit more Oilers cash even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I believe we will end up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers ought to be preferred.


"You don't see rematches too frequently in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these two groups better or even worse than they were last year? I 'd say Florida is a much better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than last year, specifically when you look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the second skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him a chance to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite because of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might offer it to him here, however that's something to see as the video games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't really standing out ... there is a real life where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weak point on the lineup, a reputation that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major factor Edmonton is still playing. He has enabled one or zero objectives in 5 of his previous seven starts, three of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the internet could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable in the past," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue could finally reach the Panthers. Or they could just be on a heater having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I don ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a little bit tougher due to the fact that more people liked Florida, but individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has an opportunity to go six or 7 games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)